Safaricom’s Dominance Faces Fresh Rivalry as Data Shows Competition Catching Up

For years now, Safaricom has had an almost strangling grip on Kenya's telecommunications & mobile finance sectors. But then , the latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) starts to show the tide starting to turn. Its easy to see that as we roll into 2026, the latest industry numbers show that rivals like Airtel Kenya & Starlink are slowly but surely starting to chip away at Safaricom's share of the market.

Safaricom's still the biggest player overall, but the days of them having a monopoly on the market are slowly coming to an end. Whats emerging is a more competitive market place with multiple players.

1. The Mobile Money Shake-Up: Airtel Money starts to really make its mark

The biggest shift is happening in the mobile money sector. M-Pesa's always been the one to beat in Kenyan fintech, but its now starting to show signs of slowing down as Airtel Money starts to gather pace.

• Market share movement: By December 2025 M-Pesa's market share for mobile money had dropped to 89%, down from 91% the year before.

• Airtel's surge: On the other hand, Airtel Money has managed to double its market share to 11% (from 8.9% just a few months earlier in 2024).

• The trend is clear: After being the clear underdog with just 5.5% of the market early in 2024, Airtel Money has made a remarkable leap forward in less than two years. Theyre proving to be a force to be reckoned with when it comes to the mobile money market

Why this matters : Mobile money is Safaricom's cash cow - its the main driver of their revenue, contributing a massive 41% (Sh161 billion) of their total revenue last financial year. Any threat to that revenue stream hits them straight where it hurts.

2. The Broadband Battle: Starlink & local ISPs start to make inroads

The broadband market for homes & businesses is also starting to show signs of competition. While Safaricom Fibre is still popular, its no longer the only game in this high speed connectivity market.

Even though Safaricom signed up a lot more users during the last quarter of 2025, their share of the total market actually shrunk a little . This points to the fact that the "internet pie" is getting bigger but smaller players and companies like Starlink are snapping up most of the new growth before Safaricom can even get a bite.

3. Where Safaricom Still Comes Out On Top

Despite the squeeze in fintech and fibre, Safaricom is still way ahead of the pack in the old-school telecom game. The company managed to grow a little bit and still held onto the top spot in:

• Voice Calls : they're still the ones on the receiving end of it all

• SMS/Messaging : people still send a lot of texts

• Mobile Data (Bundles) : they're still the biggest players in this space

These areas are still pretty solid, although they're generally considered slower-growing compared to the much higher growth potential in mobile finance and broadband.

4. The Cost of Staying Connected : A Regulatory Headache

Chopping and changing is what's going on in the market at the moment - while international bodies are saying that Kenyans need a lot more protection as consumers. A recent report from the World Bank highlighted the fact that Kenyans are getting stung for more cash than most people in other places for mobile data and calls.

The report reckons that even though competition is getting tougher, its still not enough to really sort this problem out and shove prices down where they belong - ie right down on the end consumer. And with the high cost of living at the moment, Kenyan consumers are getting very price-sensitive - and are ready to switch to cheaper alternatives or slap on a feature that lets them 'overdraft' and challenge something like Fuliza.